Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

0 Stanaway, M Mengersen, K and Reeves, R 9998 Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions Environmental and Ecological Statistics Springer 17 1-23 In Press Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.   0 Jarrad, F Barrett, S Murray, J Parkes, J Stoklosa, R Mengersen, K Whittle, P 9998 Improved design method for biosecurity surveillance and early detection of nonindigenous rats. New Zealand Journal of Ecology 34 0 Paini, D Worner, S Cook, D De Barro, P Thomas, M 9998 Using a self organising map to predict invasive species: sensitivity to data errors and a comparison with expert opinion. Journal of Applied Ecology 0 Felipe Gonzalez Marcos Castro Pritesh Narayan Rod Walker Les Zeller 2011 Development of an autonomous unmanned aerial system to collect time-stamped samples from the atmosphere and localize potential pathogen sources Journal of Field Robotics 28 6 961-976 11/2011 This paper presents the hardware development and testing of a new concept for air sampling via the integration of a prototype spore trap onboard an unmanned aerial system (UAS). We propose the integration of a prototype spore trap onboard a UAS to allow multiple capture of spores of pathogens in single remote locations at high or low altitude, otherwise not possible with stationary sampling devices. We also demonstrate the capability of this system for the capture of multiple time-stamped samples during a single mission. Wind tunnel testing was followed by simulation, and flight testing was conducted to measure and quantify the spread during simulated airborne air sampling operations. During autonomous operations, the onboard autopilot commands the servo to rotate the sampling device to a new indexed location once the UAS vehicle reaches the predefined waypoint or set of waypoints (which represents the region of interest). Time-stamped UAS data are continuously logged during the flight to assist with analysis of the particles collected. Testing and validation of the autopilot and spore trap integration, functionality, and performance is described. These tools may enhance the ability to detect new incursions of spores. 0 Shuang Liu Michael Hurley Kim Lowell Abu-Baker Siddique Art Diggle David Cook 2011 An integrated decision-support approach in prioritizing risks of non-indigenous species in the face of high uncertainty Ecological Economics 70 1924-1930 07/2011 When evaluating the risks of future invasions, we often have sparse information on the likelihood that a species will arrive, establish and spread in a new environment, and on the potential impacts should this occur. Conventional risk assessment, therefore, is limited in providing guidance in managing the risk of nonindigenous species (NIS). However, risk management decisions must be made facing these uncertainties to avoid high and irreversible impacts. We develop an integrated ecological economic modeling and deliberative multi-criteria evaluation (DMCE) approach to support group decision-making in risk prioritization, using an example of ten NIS that could potentially impact Australian plant industries. This innovative approach seeks to combine the advantages of dynamic modeling with the benefits of DMCE in assessing and communicating uncertainty. The model unveils the complexity of the socio-ecological system of biological invasion, with a scenario analysis designed to interactively communicate scientific uncertainty to decision-makers. The DMCE provides a structured approach to identifying stakeholders' key concerns in addressing economic, social, and environmental dimensions of NIS risk explicitly. Functioning as a platform for risk communication, the DMCE also offers an opportunity for diverse views to enter the decision-making process and for the negotiation of consensus consensuses. 0 David Savage Martin J. Barbetti William J. MacLeod Moin U. Salam Michael Renton 2011 Can mechanistically parameterised, anisotropic dispersal kernels provide a reliable estimate of wind-assisted dispersal? Ecological Modelling 222 10 11 05/2011 The dispersal capabilities of organisms play an important role in defining their ability to colonise new areas and to maintain populations in fragmented or dynamic environments. For invasive organisms that undergo passive, wind-assisted dispersal the speed and spatial structure of unfolding epidemics are largely determined by wind conditions in the area under invasion. For the conservation of endangered species, local wind conditions influence the ability of wind-dispersing organisms to survive habitat fragmentation. Therefore, models of wind-assisted dispersal are required that capture the dynamics of local wind conditions and the effect of prevailing winds on resulting spread. We tested the ability of a simple two-dimensional kernel to encapsulate these dynamics and to make accurate predictions of spread based only on wind data and the physical characteristics of the organism in question. The kernel uses a mixture of von Mises distributions to capture the anisotropic nature of local wind conditions and a mechanistically parameterised kernel to describe dispersal distance. Comparisons with a mechanistic model showed that this kernel was able to provide a good estimate of spread and provide a far more informative and useful prediction than an isotropic equivalent. http://bit.ly/i4EbE3 0 David Cook Luis Carrasco Dean Paini Rob Fraser 2011 Estimating the social welfare effects of New Zealand apple imports The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 1-22 International trade of agricultural products not only generates wealth but is also responsible for the introduction of invasive pests beyond their natural range. Comprehensive bioeconomic modelling frameworks are increasingly needed to assist in the resolution of import access disputes. However, frameworks that combine welfare analysis attributable to trade and invasive species spread management are lacking. This study provides a demonstration of how a comprehensive economic framework, which takes into account both the gains from trade and the costs of invasive species outbreaks, can inform decision-makers when making quarantine decisions. We develop a partial equilibrium trade model considering international trade and combine it with a stratified dispersal model for the spread and management of potential outbreaks of an invasive species. An empirical estimation is made of the economic welfare consequences for Australia of allowing quarantine-restricted trade in New Zealand apples to take place. The results suggest the returns to Australian society from importing New Zealand apples are likely to be negative. The price differential between the landed product with SPS measures in place and the autarkic price is insufficient to outweigh the increase in expected damage resulting from increased fire blight risk. As a consequence, this empirical analysis does not support the opening up of this trade. 0 Shuang Liu Andy Sheppard Darren Kriticos David Cook 2011 Incorporating uncertainty and social values in managing invasive alien species: a deliberative multi-criteria evaluation approach Biol Invasions Springer The management of Invasive Alien Species (IAS) is stymied by complex social values and severe levels of uncertainty. However, these two challenges are often hidden in the conventional model of management by ‘‘value-free’’ analyses and probability-based estimates of risk. As a result, diverse social values and wide margins of error in risk assessment carry zero weights in the decision-making process, leaving IAS risk decisions to be made in the wake of political pressure and the crisis atmosphere of incursion. We propose to use a Deliberative Multi-Criteria Evaluation (DMCE) to incorporate multiple social values and profound uncertainty into decisionmaking processes. The DMCE process combines the advantages of conventional multi-criteria decision analysis methods with the benefits of stakeholder participation to provide an analytical structure to assess complex multi-dimensional objectives. It, therefore, offers an opportunity for diverse views to enter the decision-making process, and for the negotiation of consensus positions. The DMCE process can also function as a platform for risk communication in which scientists, stakeholders, and decision-makers can interact and discuss the uncertainty associated with biological invasions. We examine two case studies that demonstrate how DMCE provides scientific rigor and transparency in the decision-making process of invasion risk management. The first case regards pre-border priority ranking for potential invasive species and the second relates to selecting the most desirable policy option for managing a postborder invader. 0 Grant Hamilton David Elmouttie 2011 Insect distributions and sampling protocols for stored commodities Stewart Postharvest Review 5 Purpose of review: This review provides an overview on the importance of characterising and considering insect distribution information for designing stored commodity sampling protocols. Findings: Sampling protocols are influenced by a number of factors including government regulations, management practices, new technology and current perceptions of the status of insect pest damage. The spatial distribution of insects in stored commodities influences the efficiency of sampling protocols; these can vary in response to season, treatment and other factors. It is important to use sampling designs based on robust statistics suitable for the purpose. Future research: The development of sampling protocols based on flexible, robust statistics allows for accuracy across a range of spatial distributions. Additionally, power can be added to sampling protocols through the integration of external information such as treatment history and climate. Bayesian analysis provides a coherent and well understood means to achieve this. 0 Robert Emery Manoj Nayak Joanne Holloway 2011 Lessons learned from phosphine resistance monitoring in Australia Stewart Postharvest Review 8 Heavy reliance on phosphine to disinfest stored grain over the last few decades has led to the development of resistance in key stored grain insect pests around the globe jeopardising the long-term sustainability of this key fumigant. Australia is the only country in the world with a national resistance monitoring program which has, for over two decades, diagnosed, recorded and managed resistance to phosphine. The purpose of this review is to highlight the lessons learned from the Australian experience. 0 Dean Paini Felix Bianchi Tobin Northfield Paul De Barro 2011 Predicting Invasive Fungal Pathogens Using Invasive Pest Assemblages: Testing Model Predictions in a Virtual World PLoS ONE 6 10 9 Predicting future species invasions presents significant challenges to researchers and government agencies. Simply considering the vast number of potential species that could invade an area can be insurmountable. One method, recently suggested, which can analyse large datasets of invasive species simultaneously is that of a self organising map (SOM), a form of artificial neural network which can rank species by establishment likelihood. We used this method to analyse the worldwide distribution of 486 fungal pathogens and then validated the method by creating a virtual world of invasive species in which to test the SOM. This novel validation method allowed us to test SOM’s ability to rank those species that can establish above those that can’t. Overall, we found the SOM highly effective, having on average, a 96–98% success rate (depending on the virtual world parameters). We also found that regions with fewer species present (i.e. 1–10 species) were more difficult for the SOM to generate an accurately ranked list, with success rates varying from 100% correct down to 0% correct. However, we were able to combine the numbers of species present in a region with clustering patterns in the SOM, to further refine confidence in lists generated from these sparsely populated regions. We then used the results from the virtual world to determine confidences for lists generated from the fungal pathogen dataset. Specifically, for lists generated for Australia and its states and territories, the reliability scores were between 84–98%. We conclude that a SOM analysis is a reliable method for analysing a large dataset of potential invasive species and could be used by biosecurity agencies around the world resulting in a better overall assessment of invasion risk. 0 Michael Thompson Anita Lyons Lalith Kumarasinghe Darren R Peck Gary Kong 2011 Remote microscopy: a success story in Australian and New Zealand plant biosecurity Australian Journal of Entomology Rapid and accurate identification of organisms is crucial to many research and applied outcomes. Diagnostics is a critical first step in determining the significance of suspected biosecurity threats posed by emergency plant pests and other invasive pests and pathogens. Traditionally, the biological specimens needing identification are physically mailed to a dispersed community of taxonomic experts for determination. While effective, this is an expensive, labour-intensive and slow process, often taking days to receive a confirmed identification. Remote microscopy creates virtual, real-time networks of experts using web-based cameras mounted on microscopes that allow interactive access to real-time images of scientific specimens from anywhere in the world via the Internet. Trials conducted by the Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service and the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Biosecurity New Zealand to test the efficacy of remote microscopy in plant quarantine settings showed that in Australia a diagnosis to a level at which realistic biosecurity decisions could be made occurred on 77% of occasions, while in New Zealand high impact exotic pest status was determined during 92% of the diagnostic events, and regulatory status was determined during 96% of events. These positive results are leading towards the expansion of remote microscopy throughout Australia, New Zealand and into South-East Asia, as well as widening its role as part of online diagnostic frameworks. 0 A Ridley J Hereward G Daglish P Collins S Raghu G Walter 2011 The spatiotemporal dynamics of Tribolium castaneum (Herbst): adult flight and gene flow Molecular Ecology http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-294X.2011.05049.x/full 0 Peter Mangano Darryl Hardie Jane Speijers Richard Johnston Maria J. de Sousa-Majer Glynn Maynard 2011 The Capacity of Groups within the Community to Carry out Plant Pest Surveillance Detection The Open Entomology Journal 5 15-23 A set of trial exercises was run to compare pest surveillance capabilities of the Department of Agriculture and Food’s entomology and plant pathology staff (all with some degree of field survey experience) with persons from various community groups. Information indicating a comparable level of confidence in the use of community members for surveillance, to complement professional staff capacity, is provided. 0 Hodda,M Cook,D 2010 Economic impact from unrestricted spread of Potato Cyst Nematodes in Australia Phytopathology In Press 0 Campbell, P 2010 Comparison Of The Mitochondrial Proteomes Of Phosphine - Susceptible And - Resistant Tribolium Castaneum Journal of Stored Products Research 46 197-201 2010 0 Paini, D Worner, S Cook, D De Barro, P Thomas, M 2010 Threat of invasive pests from within national borders Nature Communications Nature Publishing Group 11/2010 Predicting and ranking potential invasive species present significant challenges to researchers and biosecurity agencies. Here we analyse a worldwide database of pest species assemblages to generate lists of the top 100 insect pests most likely to establish in the United States and each of its 48 contiguous states. For the United States as a whole, all of the top 100 pest species have already established. Individual states however tend to have many more 'gaps' with most states having at least 20 species absent from their top 100 list. For all but one state, every exotic pest species currently absent from a state's top 100 can be found elsewhere in the contiguous United States. We conclude that the immediate threat from known invasive insect pests is greater from within the United States than without. Our findings have potentially significant implications for biosecurity policy, emphasizing the need to consider biosecurity measures beyond established national border interventions.   0 Venette, R.C. Kriticos, D.J. Magarey, R.D. Koch, F.H. Baker, R.H.A. Worner, S.P. Gómez Raboteaux, N.N. McKenney, D.W. Dobesberger, E. J. Yemshanov, D. De Barro, P.J. Hutchison, W.D. Fowler, G. Kalaris, T.M. Pedlar, J. 2010 Pest Risk Maps for Invasive Alien Species: A Roadmap for Improvement BioScience American Institute of Biological Sciences 60 5 13 05/2010 0 Tan, M.K Brennan, J Wright, D Murray, G 2010 An enhanced protocol for the quarantine detection of Tilletia indica and economic comparison with its current standard Australasian Plant Pathology 39 4 334-342 04/2010 Tilletia indica, the cause of Karnal bunt of wheat, is the target of strict quarantine regulations by most wheat-growing countries and its presence raises trade barriers to wheat exports. The international diagnostic protocol currently used in Australia involves the tentative identification of the spores based on morphology followed by germination of the spores and a molecular protocol to confirm the identity. This paper reports on the development of an enhanced protocol by the incorporation of a highly sensitive one-tube molecular assay for T. indica and related Tilletia species found as grain contaminants. The enhanced protocol reduces the amount of time and labour required in microscopy and bypasses the germination of Tilletia spores in the processing of samples. An economic analysis has been performed to compare the economic costs of the current and the enhanced protocol and their relative performance in different scenarios. The results indicated that the current protocol would be more economical in the monitoring and identification of T. indica in current infested areas. However, the enhanced protocol is significantly more economical and sensitive for use in an exotic pest incursion scenario or a survey to demonstrate area of freedom. The enhanced protocol also reduces the elapsed time before a definitive identification can be achieved.   0 The_International_Aphid_Genomics_Consortium 2010 Genome Sequence of the Pea Aphid Acyrthosiphon PLoSBiology 8 2 02/2010   <div style="line-height: normal">Aphids are important agricultural pests and also biological models for studies of insect-plant interactions, symbiosis, virus vectoring, and the developmental causes of extreme phenotypic plasticity. Here we present the 464 Mb draft genome assembly of the pea aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum. This first published whole genome sequence of a basal hemimetabolous insect provides an outgroup to the multiple published genomes of holometabolous insects. Pea aphids are host-plant specialists, they can reproduce both sexually and asexually, and they have coevolved with an obligate bacterial symbiont. Here we highlight findings from whole genome analysis that may be related to these unusual biological features. These findings include discovery of extensive gene duplication in more than 2000 gene families as well as loss of evolutionarily conserved genes. Gene family expansions relative to other published genomes include genes involved in chromatin modification, miRNA synthesis, and sugar transport. Gene losses include genes central to the IMD immune pathway, selenoprotein utilization, purine salvage, and the entire urea cycle. The pea aphid genome reveals that only a limited number of genes have been acquired from bacteria; thus the reduced gene count of Buchnera does not reflect gene transfer to the host genome. The inventory of metabolic genes in the pea aphid genome suggests that there is extensive metabolite exchange between the aphid and Buchnera, including sharing of amino acid biosynthesis between the aphid and Buchnera. The pea aphid genome provides a foundation for post-genomic studies of fundamental biological questions and applied agricultural problems.</div> 0 Kriticos, D Leriche, A 2010 The effects of climate data precision on fitting and projecting species niche models Ecography 33 1 115 - 127 01/2010 Biosecurity agencies are particularly concerned to know the potential distribution of invasive alien species under present, and to a lesser extent, future climates; expensive decisions can hinge upon the degree of perceived threat a pest species poses. Climate-based niche modelling techniques are available to inform these decisions. These tools now regularly employ gridded climate datasets of moderate spatial resolution (0.5 degree), though biosecurity decision-makers continually seek greater spatial precision in the risk map products. Various splining techniques are capable of generating gridded climate datasets approaching the precision limits imposed by the availability of digital elevation model data. As the spatial precision of climate datasets increases, more detailed effects of topographic relief become apparent in the climatic data. When these datasets are used to develop and apply species niche models, the climate data is spatially intersected with species location data to infer relationships between the climate and the species' geographic distribution. Here we investigate the effect of changing climate precision on projections of species' niche models developed with CLIMEX, including the effect of upscaling and downscaling the outputs. We found that there were noticeable increases in sensitivity in models developed using more precise climate datasets. The largest differences in projections were noted where species range limits coincided with regions of strong climatic gradients such as where there was marked topographic relief in relation to the spatial precision of the climatic dataset. Upscaling (fitting a model with a fine resolution dataset and then projecting the results with a coarser grid), tended to produce smaller potential ranges for a species, albeit at the cost of model sensitivity. Downscaling had the opposite effect, identifying additional, mostly marginally climatically suitable habitat. It remains unclear how sensitive the fine resolution results are to the number and spatial arrangement of input location records used to build the model. The results indicate some benefits of improving the spatial resolution of climate datasets, though not at the expense of climatic data accuracy. Decision-makers should be mindful of the inherent uncertainties in these models, and modellers have a responsibility to identify and convey these uncertainties to their intended audience. 0 M Castalanelli D Severtson C Brumley A Szito R Foottit M Grimm K Munyard D Groth 2010 A rapid non-destructive DNA extraction method for insects and other arthropods Journal of Asia-Pacific Entomology 13 3 243-248 0 Jarrad, F Barrett, S Murray, J Stoklosa, R Whittle, P Mengersen, K 2010 Ecological aspects of biosecurity surveillance design for the detection of multiple invasive animal species Biological Invasions Springer Alien-invasive species - Expert elicitation - Island ecosystems - Power to detect - Statistical design Complex surveillance problems are common in biosecurity, such as prioritizing detection among multiple invasive species, specifying risk over a heterogeneous landscape, combining multiple sources of surveillance data, designing for specified power to detect, resource management, and collateral effects on the environment. Moreover, when designing for multiple target species, inherent biological differences among species result in different ecological models underpinning the individual surveillance systems for each. Species are likely to have different habitat requirements, different introduction mechanisms and locations, require different methods of detection, have different levels of detectability, and vary in rates of movement and spread. Often there is a further challenge of a lack of knowledge, literature, or data, for any number of the above problems. Even so, governments and industry need to proceed with surveillance programs which aim to detect incursions in order to meet environmental, social and political requirements. We present an approach taken to meet these challenges in one comprehensive and statistically powerful surveillance design for non-indigenous terrestrial vertebrates on Barrow Island, a high conservation nature reserve off the Western Australian coast. Here, the possibility of incursions is increased due to construction and expanding industry on the island. The design, which includes mammals, amphibians and reptiles, provides a complete surveillance program for most potential terrestrial vertebrate invaders. Individual surveillance systems were developed for various potential invaders, and then integrated into an overall surveillance system which meets the above challenges using a statistical model and expert elicitation. We discuss the ecological basis for the design, the flexibility of the surveillance scheme, how it meets the above challenges, design limitations, and how it can be updated as data are collected as a basis for adaptive management. 0 Elmouttie, D Kiermeier, A Hamilton, G 2010 Improving detection probabilities for pests in stored grain Pest Management Science 1280-1286 BACKGROUND: The presence of insects in stored grain is a significant problem for grain farmers, bulk grain handlers and distributors worldwide. Inspection of bulk grain commodities is essential to detect pests and thereby to reduce the risk of their presence in exported goods. It has been well documented that insect pests cluster in response to factors such as microclimatic conditions within bulk grain. Statistical sampling methodologies for grain, however, have typically considered pests and pathogens to be homogeneously distributed throughout grain commodities. In this paper, a sampling methodology is demonstrated that accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of insects in bulk grain. RESULTS: It is shown that failure to account for the heterogeneous distribution of pests may lead to overestimates of the capacity for a sampling programme to detect insects in bulk grain. The results indicate the importance of the proportion of grain that is infested in addition to the density of pests within the infested grain. It is also demonstrated that the probability of detecting pests in bulk grain increases as the number of subsamples increases, even when the total volume or mass of grain sampled remains constant. CONCLUSION: This study underlines the importance of considering an appropriate biological model when developing sampling methodologies for insect pests. Accounting for a heterogeneous distribution of pests leads to a considerable improvement in the detection of pests over traditional sampling models.   0 MELLOY, P HOLLAWAY, G LUCK, J NORTON, R AITKEN, E CHAKRABORTY, S 2010 Production and fitness of Fusarium pseudograminearum inoculum at elevated carbon dioxide in FACE Global Change Biology Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is increasingly affecting food production but how plant diseases will influence production and quality of food under rising CO2 is not well understood. With increased plant biomass at high CO2 the stubble-borne fungal pathogen Fusarium pseudograminearum causing crown rot (CR) of wheat may become more severe. We have studied inoculum production by Fusarium using fungal biomass per unit wheat stubble, stem browning from CR and the saprophytic fitness of Fusarium strains isolated from two wheat varieties grown in 2007 and 2008 at ambient and elevated CO2 in free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) with or without irrigation and once in a controlled environment. Fungal biomass, determined using primers for fungal ribosomal 18s and the TRI5 gene, increased significantly at elevated CO2 in two of the three studies. Stem browning increased significantly at elevated CO2 in the 2007 FACE study. At elevated CO2 increased stem browning was not influenced by irrigation in a susceptible variety but in a resistant variety stem browning increased by 68% without irrigation. Wheat variety was significant in regression models explaining stem browning and Fusarium biomass but pathogen biomass at the two CO2 levels was not significantly linked to stem browning. Fusarium isolates from ambient and elevated CO2 did not differ significantly in their saprophytic fitness measured by the rate of colonization of wheat straw. We show that under elevated CO2 Fusarium inoculum in stubbles will be amplified from increased crop and pathogen biomass while unimpeded saprophytic fitness will retain its effectiveness. If resistant varieties cannot completely stop infection, Fusarium will rapidly colonize stubble to further increase inoculum once the crop is harvested. Research should move beyond documenting the influence of elevated CO2 to developing disease management strategies from improved knowledge of pathogen biology and host resistance under rising CO2.   0 Savage, D Barbetti, M.J. MacLeod, W.J. Salam, M.U. Renton, M 2010 Timing of propagule release significantly alters the deposition area of resulting aerial dispersal Diversity and Distributions: A Journal of Conservation Biogeography Blackwell Publishing 16 2 288 - 299   <div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt">Aim: The aim of this study is to determine whether changes to the seasonal and circadian timing of propagule release can a have a significant effect on the area covered by resulting aerial dispersal.</div> <div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt">Location:  Western Australia.</div> <div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt">Methods: Using the atmospheric pollution model (TAPM), an existing meso-scale dispersal model, a range of release patterns was simulated and the resulting deposition compared. Comparisons were based on observations of deposition patterns and the calculated area of deposition.</div> <div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt">Results:  Small changes to the timing of propagule release were shown to significantly impact on the area experiencing deposition from the resulting aerial dispersal.</div> <div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt">Main conclusions: Simulations performed in this study show that, for small propagules, changes to the timing of release can lead to alternate, clearly differentiable dispersal events. Small changes in both the seasonal and circadian patterns of release can have significant effects on the area that experiences deposition during the resulting dispersal event. This effect is particularly important at the landscape scale and when there is a need to quantify individual dispersal events. Predictive modelling of aerial dispersal needs to be undertaken with an understanding of the manner in which biological and environmental factors that affect the timing of propagule release can influence results. Results presented highlight the need to characterize the epidemiology of pathogenic organisms of importance to biosecurity as much as possible before they arrive.</div> http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/120125116/issue?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0 0 Geering, A Scharaschkin, T Teycheney, P.Y 2010 The classification and nomenclature of endogenous viruses of the family Caulimoviridae Virology Division News 123–131 Endogenous members of the family Caulimoviridae have now been found in the genomes of many plant species. Although these sequences are usually fragmented and rearranged and show varying degrees of decay, the genomes of the ancestral viruses can often be reassembled in silico, allowing classification within the existing viral taxonomic framework. In this paper, we describe analyses of endogenous members of the family Caulimoviridae in the genomes of Oryza sativa, Nicotiana tabacum and Solanum spp. and on the basis of phylogeny, genome organization and genetic distance within the pol gene, propose two new virus genera called Orendovirus and Solendovirus. A system of nomenclature for endogenous virus sequences in plants is also proposed. 0 Daglish, G Nayak, M 2010 Uneven of application influences efficacy of s-methoprene against Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) in wheat the Journal of Stored Products Research Elsevier Ltd 46 250-253 Uneven application s-Methoprene JHA Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) The Juvenile Hormone analogue s-methoprene is used to protect stored grain from pests such as the lesser grain borer, Rhyzopertha dominica (F.). The possibility that uneven application influences s-methoprene efficacy against this species was investigated in the laboratory. Adults of methoprene-susceptible strains were exposed for 14 days to wheat treated at doses of up to 0.6 mg kg−1, or to mixtures of treated and untreated wheat giving equivalent average doses. Adult mortality after exposure to treated wheat was negligible in all cases (≤3.3%) and there was no significant effect of either average dose or evenness of application. In contrast, the number of adult progeny depended on both the average dose and evenness of application. Average doses of 0.3 and 0.6 mg kg−1 reduced the number of live F1 adults by 99–100% relative to the untreated wheat and no effect of evenness of application was detected. At lower doses, however, efficacy tended to decrease with increasing unevenness of application. When adults from the parental generation were transferred to untreated wheat for another 14 days neither the average dose nor evenness of application in the wheat from which they came had any significant effect on reproduction of these adults. This study demonstrates that uneven application can reduce the efficacy of s-methoprene against R. dominica, but that this is unlikely to influence the performance of s-methoprene against susceptible populations at target doses likely to be used in practice (e.g. 0.6 mg kg−1 in Australia). However, the possibility that uneven application leads to underdosing and selects for resistance should be investigated. 0 McTaggart, A Shivas, R 2009 Tilletia challinorae Persoonia - Molecular Phylogeny and Evolution of Fungi Nationaal Herbarium Nederland and Centraalbureau voor Schimmelcultures 23 185 - 186 December 2009 0 Tan,M.K Ghalayini, A Sharma, I Jianping, Y Shivas, R Priest, M Wright, D 2009 A one tube fluorescent assay for the quarantine detection and identification of Tilletia indica and other grass bunts in wheat Australasian Plant Pathology 38 101-109 0 Barrett,S Whittle,P Mengersen,K Stoklosa,R 2009 Biosecurity threats: the design of surveillance systems, based on power and risk Environmental and Ecological Statistics 0 Rattanapun,W Amornsak,W Clarke,A 2009 Bactrocera dorsalis preference for and performance on two mango varieties at three stages of ripeness Entomologia experimentalis et applicata 131 0 Daglish, G.J Pavic, H 2009 Changes in phosphine sorption in wheat after storage at two temperatures Pest Management Science 65 1228-1232 BACKGROUND: Wheat can be stored for many months before being fumigated with phosphine to kill insects, so a study was undertaken to investigate whether the sorptive capacity of wheat changes as it ages. Wheat was stored at 15 or 25 â�¦C and 55% RH for up to 5.5 months, and samples were fumigated at intervals to determine sorption. Sealed glass flasks (95% full) were injected with 1.5mg L−1 of phosphine based on flask volume. Concentrations were monitored for 11 days beginning 2 h after injection. Some wheat samples were refumigated after a period of ventilation. Several fumigations of wheat were conducted to determine the pattern of sorption during the first 24 h.   RESULTS: Phosphine concentration declined exponentially with time from 2 h after injection. Rate of sorption decreased with time spent in storage at either 15 or 25 â�¦C and 55% RH. Rate of sorption tended to be lower when wheat was refumigated, but this could be explained by time in storage rather than by refumigation per se. The data from the 24 h fumigations did not fit a simple exponential decay equation. Instead, there was a rapid decline in the first hour, with phosphine concentration falling much more slowly thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: The results have implications for phosphine fumigation of insects in stored wheat. Both the time wheat has spent in storage and the temperature atwhich it has been stored are factors that must be considered when trying to understand the impact of sorption on phosphine concentrations in commercial fumigations. http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/117935712/grouphome/home.html 0 Davidovitch,L Stoklosa,R Majer,J Nietrzeba,A Whittle,P Mengersen,K Ben-Haim,Y 2009 Info-Gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species: The case study of Barrow Island Journal of Environmental Management 0 Darby, J.A Willis, T Damcevski, K 2009 Modelling the kinetics of ethyl formate sorption by wheat using batch experiments Pest Management Science John Wiley & Sons 982-990(9) BACKGROUND: Ethyl formate formulations are being considered to replace methyl bromide for fast grain disinfestation. Grain adsorbs ethyl formate rapidly, which can result in inadequate fumigation concentrations and unacceptable grain residues. A model of ethyl formate sorption kineticswill enable fumigation approaches to be determined that meet disinfestation and food safety requirements.   RESULTS: This paper identifies all mass transport processes involved in ethyl formate sorption by wheat from published and experimental evidence. The model accounts for reaction losses of ethyl formate in air and grain using first-order kinetics, transport in the gas andsolid phases with linear mass transfer coefficients anduses a linear partition relationship representation of sorption equilibrium. Batch experimental data were measured to determine model coefficients. Novel gaseous breakdown data for ethyl formate in air were measured, and first-order kinetics was demonstrated, although the specific reactions involved were not identified.   CONCLUSION: The model predicts air and grain fumigant concentrations relevant for grain disinfestation and food residue contamination successfully. The form of the model should be applicable to all fumigant–grain systems, as it accounts for the diffusion and reaction influences known to occur with all modern fumigants under concentration and exposure conditions relevant to industry. 0 Baker,R Battisti,A Kenis,M Mumford,J Schrader,G Bacher,S De Barro,P Hulme,Pl Lansik,A Pruvost,O Pysek,P Roques,A Baranchikov,Y Sun,J 2009 PRATIQUE: a research project to enhance pest risk analysis techniques in the European Union Bulletin OEPP/EPPO Wiley-Blackwell 39 0 Nayak,M 2009 Potential of piperonyl butoxide-synergised pyrethrins against psocids (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) for stored grain protection Pest Management Science John Wiley & Sons BACKGROUND: Piperonyl butoxide (PB)-synergised natural pyrethrins (pyrethrin : PB ratio 1 : 4) were evaluated both as a grain protectant and a disinfestant against four Liposcelidid psocids: Liposcelis bostrychophila Badonnel, L. entomophila (Enderlein), L. decolor (Pearman) and L. paeta Pearman. These are key storage pests in Australia that are difficult to control with the registered grain protectants and are increasingly being reported as pests of stored products in other countries. Firstly, mortality and reproduction of adults were determined in wheat freshly treated at 0.0, 0.75, 1.5, 3 and 6mg kg−1 of pyrethrins+ PB (1 : 4) at 30 ± 1 â�¦C and 70 ± 2% RH. Next, wheat treated at 0.0, 1.5, 3 and 6mg kg−1 of pyrethrins + PB (1 : 4) was stored at 30 ± 1 â�¦C and 70 ± 2% RH andmortality and reproduction of psocids were assessed after 0, 1.5, 3 and 4.5months of storage. Finally, the potential of synergised pyrethrins as a disinfestant was assessed by establishing time to endpoint mortality for adult psocids exposed to wheat treated at 3 and 6mg kg−1 of synergised pyrethrins after 0, 3, 6, 9 and 12 h of exposure. RESULTS: Synergised pyrethrins at 6mg kg−1 provided 3 months of protection against all four Liposcelis spp., and at this rate complete adultmortality of these psocids can be achieved within 6 h of exposure. CONCLUSION: Piperonyl butoxide-synergisedpyrethrinshaveexcellent potentialbothasagrainprotectantandasadisinfestant against Liposcelidid psocids.   0 Kvedaras,O Gurr,G 2009 Synergizing biological control: Scope for sterile insect technique, induced plant defences and cultural techniques to enhance natural enemy impact Biological Control 0 Geering, A Scharaschkin, T Teycheney, P 2009 The classification and nomenclature of endogenous viruses of the family Caulimoviridae Archives of Virology Springer Wien Endogenous members of the family Caulimoviridae have now been found in the genomes of many plant species. Although these sequences are usually fragmented and rearranged and show  varying degrees of decay, the genomes of the ancestral viruses can often be reassembled in silico, allowing classification within the existing viral taxonomic framework. In this paper, we describe analyses of endogenous members of the family Caulimoviridae in the genomes of Oryza sativa, Nicotiana tabacum and Solanum spp. and on the basis of phylogeny, genome organization and genetic distance within the pol gene, propose two new virus genera called Orendovirus and Solendovirus. A system of nomenclature for endogenous virus sequences in plants is also proposed. http://www.springerlink.com/content/x668r28n18422x37/fulltext.pdf 0 Sosnowski,M Fletcher,J Daly,A Rodoni,B Viljanen-Rollinson,S 2009 Techniques for the treatment, removal and disposal of host material during programmes for plant pathogen eradication Plant Pathology Wiley InterScience 0 Shivas,R Barrett,M Barrett,R McTaggart,A 2009 Tilletia micrairae Persoonia 22 0 Shivas,R McTaggart,A 2009 Three new species of Tilletia on native grasses from northern Australia Australasian Plant Pathology 38 0 Yemshanov, D McKenney,D Pedlar,J Koch,F Cook,D 2009 Towards an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts of invasive forest species Environmental Review 163-178 0 Ian Falk Kaler Surata Wayan Mudita Eka Martiningsih Bronwyn Myers 2008 'Community Management of Biosecurity: Overview of some Indonesian studies’ (English language ed) Learning Communities: International Journal of Learning in Social Contexts Kritis, Indonesia and Learning Communities, Australia 06/2008 ‘Plant Biosecurity is a set of measures designed to protect a crop, crops or a sub-group of crops from emergency plant pests at national, regional and individual farm levels’ (Plant Health Australia, 2005).   This research asks what ‘set of measures’ can communities adopt that will assist in the identification and management of the plant pests and diseases that affect their food supplies and livelihoods? How can these measures, or strategies, be described and how can communities engage with the issues and knowledge about plant biosecurity in sustainable ways? Rephrased, the question for this research is: How do communities acquire new knowledge and develop new strategies for identifying and managing the plant pests and diseases that affect their food supplies and livelihoods? Literature scans and preliminary discussions between Indonesian and Australian institutions and communities about biosecurity established an urgent need to understand its intricacies and applicability, especially in relation to community management of biosecurity.   The term ‘biosecurity’ is relatively new in Indonesia. In order to increase knowledge of ways communities can engage and manage plant biosecurity effectively, a mixed methods quantitative and qualitative study was conducted in three diverse sites involving a total of 185 respondents. Quantitative analyses at a coastal village in West Timor (Site C) showed that Biosecurity awareness, knowledge, and actions are related to social capital. Social capital variables involved in the relations are unique for each of these biosecurity aspects. The results of qualitative analyses showed that local (and Indigenous) knowledge is a vital factor in the way communities view biosecurity, and indeed the ways they can engage with new knowledge and practices associated with managing pests and diseases. However, local knowledge is only one part of the story. The actual structure of a community – its organizations and network connections – and the processes the leadership engages across those structures – make a lie of the apparent similarities in community governance structures, such as the Desa (village) and Banjar (sub-administrative body) with their respective Heads. This has potentially dramatic impacts on engagement and management of new knowledge and strategies. The study shows that there is a clear need for additional research into the relationships between the two processes and structures of communities and the ways new knowledge and outside knowledge are acted upon. This is shown to be especially important in relation to how policy on plant biosecurity can be implemented effectively. http://www.cdu.edu.au/centres/spil/journal/JournalJune2008.pdf 0 Scott Nathan Knight 2008 Considerations for the Plant Biosecurity Policy Interface: A case study of Indonesian policy authority and community exchange Learning Communities: International Journal of Learning in Social Contexts Kritis, Indonesia and Learning Communities, Australia 2 185-208 06/2008 Knight According to Sriro (2006), Indonesia’s public policy authority in law, resides with the position of President assisted directly by Coordinating Ministries which are themselves assisted by State Ministries in the planning and formulation of policy across portfolios. It is the State Ministries that act as the bureaucratic conduit through which government departments and non-government agencies operationalise national public policy, including that of plant biosecurity. Whilst the various governance levels of national, regional, provincial, municipal and regency legislative bodies have a role in the policy process this is primarily as law makers of regulations or interpreters of existing national policy for application within their respective jurisdictions.   Notwithstanding this governance and policy construct, Indonesia as a fledgling democracy of ten years has demonstrated sensitivities which require community exchange with Executive government to mutually respond to localized public policy need and/or priority. This is demonstrable in special autonomy status being granted to Papua in 2004 and Aceh in 2006 and a partial regulatory amendment to Jakarta’s existing autonomy status to account for new development in the region.   But how do community information exchanges occur, and how do community views become recognised in the Indonesian pubic policy process? The overarching question for this paper is: What constitutes an effective policy? The assumption underlying this question is that for policy to be effective, community must have an input into policy development, implementation and evaluation. This assumption has been developed through preliminary research conducted in a Balinese community during 2007. It is the latter research that is reported on in this paper. http://www.cdu.edu.au/centres/spil/journal/JournalJune2008.pdf 0 Cook, David Matheson, C 2008 An estimate of the potential economic impact of pine pitch canker in Australia Australian Forestry Journal Australian Forestry 107-112 economic, pine pitch canker To be advised 0 Royce, P. 2008 A community approach to biosecurity in a remote Australian region Community Management of Biosecurity (English language ed.) Kritis, Indonesia and Learning Communities, Australia, 90 - 115 0 L Zheng PJ Wayper AJ Gibbs M Fourment BC Rodoni MJ Gibbs. 2008 Accumulating Variation at Conserved Sites in Potyvirus Genomes is Driven by Species Discovery and Affects Degenerate Primer Design PLoS ONE Unknown and foreign viruses can be detected using degenerate primers targeted at conserved sites in the known viral gene sequences. Conserved sites are found by comparing sequences and so the usefulness of a set of primers depends crucially on how well the known sequences represent the target group including unknown sequences. http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0001586 0 J A Darby 2008 A kinetic model of fumigant sorption by grain using batch experimental data Pest Management Science John Wiley & Sons 519-526 BACKGROUND: Most fumigants are adsorbed by grain at differing rates depending on the fumigant or grain type. Sorption can reduce the concentrations of fumigation doses to sublethal levels before grain has been disinfested. A model to predict fumigant losses due to sorption in industrial scenarios is needed.   RESULTS: This work reviews the kinetics of grain fumigant sorption and develops a new alternative model based upon key factors established from the literature and batch experimental results. The novel model accounts for linear mass transfer within the grain, irreversible ‘binding’ and linear partitioning of the fumigant to the grain. Model coefficients were estimated by minimizing the sum of squared residuals between model predictions and experimental data. The model was compared with other options including diffusion into spheres, and results for methyl bromide and phosphine are provided.   CONCLUSION: The model describes the transient changes of fumigant concentrations in both the intergranular air and grain. It provides the capacity to predict fumigant concentrations throughout grain stacks for a wide range of scenarios of industrial importance.   0 Falk, I., Surata, K., Mudita, W., Martiningsih, E. and Myers, B. 2008 Community Management of Biosecurity: Overview of some Indonesian studies Community Management of Biosecurity (English language ed.) Kritis, Indonesia and Learning Communities, Australia 1 - 40 0 DI Schlipalius W Chen PJ Collins T Nguyen P.E.B.Reilly P.R Ebert, 2008 Gene interactions constrain the course of evolution of phosphine resistance in the lesser grain borer, Rhyzopertha dominica Heredity 100 505 - 516 pesticide resistance, fitness, methyl bromide, oxidative stress, linkage mapping, RAF 0 Nayak, M Collins, P 2008 Influence of temperature and humidity on toxicity of phosphine against strongly resistant Liposcelis bostrychophila Badonnel (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae), a cosmopolitan pest of stored commodities. Pest Management Science Wiley 64: 971-976 BACKGROUND: The psocid Liposcelis bostrychophila Badonnel, is a widespread, significant pest of stored commodities, has developed strong resistance to phosphine, the major grain disinfestant. The aim was to develop effective fumigation protocols to control this resistant pest. RESULTS: Time to population extinction of all life stages (TPE) in days was evaluated at a series of phosphine concentrations and temperatures at two relative humidities. Regression analysis showed that temperature, concentration and relative humidity all contributed significantly to describing TPE (P < 0.001, R2 = 0.95), with temperature being the dominant variable, accounting for 74.4% of the variation. Irrespective of phosphine concentration, TPE was longer at lower temperatures and high humidity (70% RH) and shorter at higher temperatures and low humidity (55% RH). At any concentration of phosphine, a combination of higher temperature and lower humidity provides the shortest fumigation period to control resistant L. bostrychophila. For example, 19 and 11 days of fumigation are required at 15 â�¦C and 70% RH at 0.1 and 1.0mg L−1 of phosphine respectively, whereas only 4 and 2 days are required at 35 â�¦C and 55% RH for the same respective concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: The developed fumigation protocols will provide industry with flexibility in application of phosphine. 0 Aurambout,J-P Finlay,K Luck,J Beattie,A 2008 Modelling the potential distribution of the Asian citrus psyllid in Australia under increasing temperatures Ecological Modelling 0 Campbell,P 2008 Proteomic assessment of resistance to the fumigant phosphine in the lesser grain borer, Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) Journal of Stored Products Research 44 389-393 0 M.K. Tan and G.M.Murray 2006 A molecular protocol using quenched FRET probes for the quarantine surveillance of Tilletia indica, the causal agent of Karnal bunt of wheat Mycological Research 110 203 - 210