CRC10161: Six degrees of preparation

Risk is divided into two categories: likelihood of an event occurring and the consequence once the event has occurred. In biosecurity, the likelihood of an event (i.e. a species invading Australia) can be further divided into the likelihood of arrival, establishment and spread with entry (arrival) and establishment being the two key components. Currently, CRC10001 has been using artificial neural networks (i.e. Self Organising Maps – SOMs) to estimate likelihood of establishment. However, this only addresses only one half of the entry/establishment likelihood equation.

The second half is the likelihood of entry and in an increasingly connected world, trade and trade paths are increasing exponentially. Ships that arrive into Australia may have visited multiple ports before arriving. These complex pathways present opportunities for pests and pathogens to arrive at Australia from indirect routes. For example, the recent Khapra beetle incursion in Western Australia in which this beetle was found in the personal effects of a family emigrating from Scotland. These personal effects had become contaminated when transferred into a shipping container that had originated in Pakistan. This highlights the fact that simply monitoring those pathways that directly link Australia to countries in which a pest or disease is found may not significantly reduce the likelihood of an incident.

What is the biosecurity problem?

At present there is no methodology for generating a truly quantitative estimate for the likelihood of a pest species entering Australia. Biosecurity agencies are reliant on expert consultation and a qualitative assessment of individual available pathways. In addition, only direct pathways are assessed (i.e. those pathways that directly link Australia to a country in which a pest or disease), not those indirect pathways in which a pest or disease could travel to Australia via a ‘non-source’ country.

The Beale review on Australia’s biosecurity also identified pathways as a key to rationalising resources, and the recent CRCNPB Science Review recommendation 11, accepted by the Board, recommended increased investment in prevention research. A key element of prevention is being better able to target high risk pathways of entry. This work will therefore allow agencies such as Biosecurity Australia, and the Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service (AQIS) to employ risk return principles that will optimise resources and effort.

The main outputs of this project are to:

• identify those import pathways of highest likelihood of importing quarantine pests of grain, and
• estimate the likelihood of any quarantine grain pest arriving into Australia.

Who will be the end-users of this research?

This research will allow biosecurity agencies to target high risk pests and diseases and also identify high risk pathways. This will enable the building of capacity in specific biosecurity areas that will target weak or high risk points. The project will also develop a plant biosecurity focused research capacity for complex systems network science. A skill set that has been applied effectively in other biosecurity sectors, but not yet to plant biosecurity.