CRC10010: Enhanced Risk Analysis Tools

The Enhanced Risk Analysis Tools project will develop a national methodology to analyse and prioritise biosecurity risks to support preparedness, and to provide a higher level of confidence to Australia's plant industries in their preparedness investments. The project will use economic based assessments, likelihood pathways and methods that include competing demands on resources, competing values and preferences to reach decisions, using a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis.

What is the biosecurity problem?

Currently biosecurity prediction is highly uncertain. Plant industries need more confidence in planning for biosecurity investments. The current system depends on expert opinion on a number of questions. While this may be the best available system to prioritise threats at present, it is well known that opinion is susceptible to bias and possibly misleading prioritisation.

The main output of this project is to:

• develop a rigorous methodology for identifying and prioritising threats.

Who will be the end-users of this research?

The Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis tool will be used primarily by Plant Health Australia, its industry members, and State and Federal agencies involved with identifying and assessing external pest threats. The package will support decision making to allocation of resources that mitigate pest threats and to support the development of better pre-emptive approaches.