The Surveillance Simulation project will produce a simulation environment which will be used to estimate rates of spread of a disease and its time-changing extent over the landscape. It will provide computer-based models to disease outbreak managers, to predict the spread of emergent plant diseases and pests and improve response by biosecurity teams.

What is the biosecurity problem?

Researchers currently provide biosecurity managers with biological parameters for an EPP on host range, mode of spread, and potential distribution based on climatic factors. However, strategies to test pre-emptive surveillance and estimate rates of spread in a spatial environment in real time are not available. A ‘what if' scenario simulation tool is needed to address this shortcoming.

The main outputs of this project are to:

• develop a surveillance prediction simulation platform for validating surveillance strategies including trap placement
• develop novel landscape-level modelling techniques for disease spread simulation
• validate simulation technology using historical emergency plant pest incursion data

Who will be the end-users of this research?

Biosecurity scientists and managers in DAFF and the state Departments of Agriculture would be the main target for this technology in Australia. However Australian agencies involved with surveillance management in the natural environment and medical entomologist/epidemiologists could also find this software platform a useful tool. Quarantine agencies in other countries may also be potential users.